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Summer global warming alone will not save the northern hemisphere from the covid-19 pandemic, say researchers at Princeton University in a study published on Monday by the journal Science.
Statistical studies, conducted in recent months despite the little progress made on the new coronavirus, have shown a weak correlation between the climate and the epidemic: the warmer and more humid it is, the less the virus spreads. However, these calculations are still preliminary and the biological link between climate and Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is basically overlooked.
The studies published in Science do not counter this correlation, but consider it negligible at the moment. “We believe warmer, humid climates will not slow the virus in the early stages of the pandemic,” said study lead author Rachel Baker, post-doctoral researcher at Princeton, in a statement by the ‘university.
The climatic factor, particularly humidity, plays a role in the spread of other coronaviruses and influenza, but this factor should be limited compared to another factor much more important in the current pandemic, researchers say: weak collective immunity against Sars-Cov-2. That is to say that the reserve of people to be infected remains amply sufficient to ensure rapid progression.
“The virus will spread quickly, whatever the weather,” added the researcher. In the absence of means of control or vaccine, say the authors of this study, the coronavirus will therefore gradually contaminate a larger part of the population. It is only after that he can become seasonal, like his cousins.
“Other human coronaviruses, such as the common cold, are highly dependent on seasonal factors, peaking during winter outside of the tropics,” says Professor Bryan Grenfell. “If, as is likely, the new coronavirus is also seasonal, it can be expected to turn into a winter virus when it becomes endemic in the population.”
The team modeled several scenarios for Sars-Cov-2, based on what has been observed on flu viruses and two coronaviruses known to cause cold, and by simulating what would happen in several regions of the country. . globe, under different temperatures and humidity levels.
“Our results indicate that tropical and temperate regions must prepare for serious epidemics, and that the summer climatic conditions will not make it possible to control the transmission of infections”, conclude the researchers.
